WMO says 2026 will be one of the four warmest years on record

TL;DR in 30 sec

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says 2026 will be one of the four warmest years on record, The Hindu reported.
The global average temperature for January to September 2026 was about 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average, according to the WMO.
An estimated 146.5 million people in India were exposed to extreme heat in an April 2026 heatwave, the WMO report said.
The WMO expects the current El Niño to be the strongest on record by December.

A giant thermometer with its red column rising past the top of the frame stands over a hot city, where a person shelters from the sun under an umbrella. — Illustration

What happened

The UN’s weather agency has put 2026 among the hottest years ever measured. The WMO State of the Climate Update 2026 was released on the first day of COP31, the UN climate meeting, in Antalya, Türkiye, The Hindu reported.

The global average surface temperature from January to September 2026 was about 1.47°C above the 1850-1900 average, the WMO said. That puts it close to the full-year averages for 2025 (1.43°C) and 2023 (1.46°C), but below the 2024 record of 1.55°C, according to the WMO. The agency said the past four years, 2023-2026, are the four warmest on record.

That figure is likely to climb before the year ends, the WMO said, because El Niño has been getting stronger since August. “El Niño doesn’t add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said. “The ongoing El Nino is forecast to be one of the strongest on record,” Saulo said in a statement, according to The Hindu.

Other data point the same way. October 2026 was the warmest October on record, at 1.75°C above the pre-industrial average, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Down To Earth reported.

Why it matters for India 🇮🇳

The WMO report says an estimated 146.5 million people in India were exposed to extreme heat in an April 2026 heatwave.

The WMO expects El Niño to act as a risk multiplier for health, with more heat, drought and heavy rainfall. It said El Niño is already raising risks for agriculture, especially where food insecurity is high and farming depends on rain. The World Health Organization has, for the first time, classified the expected health impacts as a health emergency, according to the WMO.

The report also points to a gain. The number of countries reporting multi-hazard early warning systems rose from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025, the WMO said.

Background

The main driver, the WMO said, is Earth’s growing energy imbalance. Put simply, greenhouse gases trap more of the sun’s heat than escapes back to space. That imbalance reached its highest level since monitoring began, according to the report.

Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose 53%, from about 278 parts per million (ppm) in 1750 to about 426.8 ppm in 2025, the WMO said. Methane rose 167% over the same period, to 1,948 parts per billion.

The ocean soaks up 90% of the excess heat, and 2026 is on track to be the tenth year in a row of record ocean warmth, the WMO said.

Global mean sea level reached a record high in 2026, and glaciers lost more than 400 gigatons of ice in 2025, according to the report.

The WMO’s temperature figure is based on nine international datasets, the agency said. The final State of the Global Climate 2026 report is due in March 2027.

Different perspectives

The temperature estimates differ slightly by method. The WMO puts January to September at 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, with a margin of plus or minus 0.13°C, and expects the full-year figure to be higher. The Copernicus Climate Change Service estimated that 2026 would end between 1.56°C and 1.61°C above pre-industrial levels, Down To Earth reported. Copernicus put the chance of 2026 becoming the second-warmest year at 80%, and of matching or beating 2024 at 20%, according to the same report.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said leaders must cut emissions faster, move away from fossil fuels and deliver finance to vulnerable countries, according to the WMO. No source reviewed disputed the WMO’s findings.

Open questions 🤔

Will 2026 end as the warmest year on record, overtaking 2024?
How will the El Niño affect India’s weather in the first half of 2027?
Will COP31 agree on new steps on emissions or climate finance?

What to watch next

The WMO will publish its final State of the Global Climate 2026 report in March 2027. The WMO expects El Niño to continue into early 2027.